Perhaps the biggest geopolitical event of the year was Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, marking Europe’s first inter-state war in 77 years. Russian President Vladimir Putin justified his country’s invasion of Ukraine on the existential threat that Russia would face if Ukraine had gone on to join Nato.
Ukraine, for years, has toyed with the idea of joining the EU and Nato as a way of pulling itself from the Russian orbit. However, Putin has consistently argued that Nato’s eastward expansion was a national security threat for Russia and a violation of balance of power principles. Hence, the only way to stop its expansion to the Russian border was to topple the Ukrainian government and replace it with one that is sympathetic to Russia’s position.
The war escalated the already high geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West. The latter, led by the US, swiftly imposed economic and diplomatic sanctions on Russia, led a spirited campaign for the global isolation of Moscow at the UN and provided massive military assistance to Ukraine, which has aided its war effort. So tense have geopolitical relations been that Putin has alluded to the possibility of a nuclear war on a number of occasions.
The geopolitical divide emanating from the war has gone beyond the Russia-West dichotomy to encompass other powers such as China and India and regions like Africa and South America. These powers and regions have refused to toe the Western line and have resisted the campaign for the economic and political isolation of Moscow.
The war has had a devastating impact on a global economy that is still recovering from the disruption of the Covid-19 pandemic. As both Ukraine and Russia are major producers of critical commodities such as wheat, corn, sunflower, fertiliser, oil, iron and steel and gas, the global markets were thrown into turmoil. The chaos that set in paved the way for higher energy and food prices, thus driving global inflation, constraining economic growth, exacerbating food insecurity, and raising the risk of political instability in affected countries across the world.
The war has been raging on since February as none of the parties seems to be willing to negotiate. While the war is being fought in Eastern Europe, it has massive global implications. Most importantly, it is an armed and active push-back against the attempts by the West to extend the frontiers of their global dominance and influence.
As such, as the war marks the limits of Western power, it could prove to be turning point for those actors, including Africa, who have been clamouring for an alternative global order.
In other areas, Britain’s longest-serving monarch, Queen Elizabeth III, died on September 8 after leading the world’s most prominent monarchy for 70 years. Queen Elizabeth left behind a fabulously rich monarchy valued at $28 billion. Her own personal net worth was estimated at $500 million.