Six Nations permutations: How can France, Scotland and Ireland win the title? | Rugby Union News

The 2026 Six Nations will reach a crescendo this weekend with Scotland, France and Ireland still all in contention of taking the trophy home.

A stunning fourth round that saw England fall to Italy for the first time and Scotland shock France has set up a fascinating finale of games on Saturday, March 14.

Wales, despite their improvement under Steve Tandy, are desperate not to take home another wooden spoon, while England look to end their humbling campaign on a high.

So who needs what to happen in order to win?

France

Heading into the final round, France are in the strongest position as they sit top of the standings tied on points with Scotland but with a hefty points difference (+79 compared to +21).

The clearest way to secure the Championship for the second year in a row would be to beat England with more bonus points than Scotland, to make sure Scotland aren’t able to leapfrog them to the title.

If France beat England but finish with the same number of bonus points as the Scots, their points difference advantage should be enough to still walk away with the trophy.

If Ireland were to beat Scotland, any win would secure the Championship for France, while a draw in Dublin would mean the French could also settle for a draw and still take the trophy.

France hosting England will be the last game of the tournament.

Scotland

After their win over France in round four, Scotland have a chance to take their first title since 1999, the year before the tournament’s expansion to the Six Nations in 2000.

However, their leniency in allowing France to score four tries in the final 15 minutes and pick up a crucial bonus point could be what spoils their plans as both teams currently stand on 16 points.

Scotland are the first of the three games on Saturday as they travel to face Ireland, who they haven’t beaten in the Six Nations since 2017 and haven’t won against in Dublin since 2010.

If France beat England later in the day, Scotland need to have won against Ireland with one more bonus point than the French.

However, if both France and Scotland win with the same number of bonus points, then the Scots will need to overcome a 58-point points-difference deficit to win the Championship.

If France draw with or lose to England, then Scotland would win the Championship with any nature of win over Ireland.

Ireland

Ireland’s campaign started with a loss to France, before a near blunder against Italy in round two which would have severely dampened their 2026 Six Nations.

However, with a dominant win over England followed by a concise win over Wales, they sit just two points behind the top two teams, with the Championship title still possible.

The first key to Ireland’s hopes is that France do not beat England, as they cannot catch up on points if Les Bleus take the win.

A France-England draw would mean that an Ireland win with more bonus points than the French side would win them the Championship.

They will also win the Championship with any bonus-point win over Scotland if England beat France.

What about the bottom of the table?

England went into the Six Nations with hopes of a Grand Slam; instead, they are leaving with their heads hung low as they look to avoid the wooden spoon.

The English haven’t finished the tournament in fifth or below since 2021, which is also the year that Wales most recently won the Six Nations.

Now in 2026, Wales are looking to avoid their third consecutive wooden spoon despite an improved tournament under Tandy who only took charge of the side in September 2025.

They looked to be set to end their 13-game Six Nations losing run in February when they held the lead over Scotland for most of the game until a last-minute try from the opposition stubbed their return to winning ways.

But to avoid the wooden spoon, Wales will need a big bonus-point win over Italy alongside a dominant French win over England in order to finish above the English on points difference.

It would be a tough feat for Wales as their points difference currently stands at -96 while England’s is +4.

Steve Borthwick’s side will be keen to avoid a fourth consecutive loss for the first time in their Six Nations history, while Italy, no matter their result, cannot finish last.