The 137th staging of the Wimbledon Championships began today, with first-round matches kicking off moments ago. Who are the favorites, the spoilers, the sure bets, the wild cards? Let’s look at the women’s tournament first.
If men’s tennis was, until recently, dominated by the so-called Big Three (Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, with only the latter still playing—more below), the women’s tennis world seems to be slowly solidifying into its own Big Three, with some combination of Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff, and Aryna Sabalenka dominating most—but certainly not all—tournaments. That first one, though, is in a league of her own lately: Swiatek has won 45 of the 49 matches she’s played this year, is coming off winning her fourth French Open title, and seems utterly indomitable…except, for some reason which nobody has yet nailed down, Wimbledon. Almost incomprehensibly, she’s never gotten past the quarterfinals here. Is this going to be the year she breaks the spell? Nobody—but nobody—knows that answer, but here’s the thing: Swiatek faces unseeded—but potentially giant-killing—American Sofia Kenin in the first round. (Last year, Kenin knocked Gauff out of the tournament in the first round.) If she gets past her, she could face her nemesis, Jelena Ostapenko, in the fourth round. (Swiatek is 0-4 against Ostapenko.)
Fourth-seeded Elena Rybakina won here two years ago, but a repeat would seem unlikely: She’s been plagued by illness in recent months, and even recent weeks. Which brings us to Sabalenka and Gauff: The former seems to have moved beyond her moody inconsistency and is reaching the semifinals at majors consistently—but she pulled out of her final Wimbledon warmup with a shoulder issue. If that was merely precautionary, watch out for her here—but if that was anything significant or ongoing, it’s going to be a struggle for her. (Update: On Monday morning, Sabalenka, “heartbroken,” withdrew from the tournament because of that shoulder.)
Which leaves Gauff, seeded second: She’s the reigning US Open champion, she has made the semis at this year’s two previous majors, and, honestly, the draw seems to favor her. Barring an upset, her path to the fourth round seems secure—but it’s there that she could face four-time Grand Slam champion Naomi Osaka, who’s been looking more and more fearsome in her (still-evolving) comeback.
Assuming what’s so far never happened—that Swiatek makes it to the final here—and assuming that the seeds play (in the way that they almost never quite seem to do), she’d play Gauff for the title. If that actually comes to fruition, we’re in for a barnburner. (And if it doesn’t, we’re likely along for the rise of a new star, so count us in in either case.)